Gaining Time Part 3

 

Positions 2-19 and 2-20 present two varaitions of a position. In the first position the best move is to forego the loose hit and make the 16 point. Trice gives two reasons for not hitting. One is that blue’s position does not need consolidating, the other is that blue position is not likely to become significantly stronger than it already is. It seems to be that blue would very much like to make another home  board in this position, but this does not give blue that much greater of an advantage.  I thought part of the reason that bar/16 was the better play in this position might be making the 16 point. But as the rollout shows  16/11 also comes out ahead. 

 

Pip counts: Blue 139, Red 165
Position ID: hnOOAyBsOwDhRA Match ID: cAkWAAAAAAAA

• Red moves bar/16

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	R	bar/16	-0.212
			0.439 0.117 0.004 – 0.561 0.099 0.003 -0.103 -0.212 0.002 0.001 0.000 – 0.002 0.001 0.000 0.005 0.011
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 871966697 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	R	bar/21 16/11	-0.227 ( -0.015)
			0.437 0.124 0.004 – 0.563 0.122 0.004 -0.124 -0.227 0.002 0.002 0.000 – 0.002 0.002 0.000 0.005 0.013
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 871966697 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	3	R	bar/21 6/1*	-0.251 ( -0.039)
			0.439 0.124 0.004 – 0.561 0.147 0.005 -0.147 -0.251 0.002 0.002 0.000 – 0.002 0.002 0.000 0.006 0.014
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 871966697 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

The next position is 2-20, this is followed by the positions that Trice mentions but does not show.

 

Pip counts: Blue 132, Red 165
Position ID: DeeMCSBsOwDhRA Match ID: cAkWAAAAAAAA

• Red moves bar/16

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity		+0.288
Cubeful equities:
1.	No double	+0.404
2.	Double, pass	+1.000	+0.596
3.	Double, take	+0.290	-0.114
Proper cube action:		No double, take (16.0%)

 

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	R	bar/21 6/1*	+0.340
			0.567 0.239 0.013 – 0.433 0.144 0.005 +0.236 +0.340 0.002 0.002 0.001 – 0.002 0.002 0.001 0.006 0.016
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 871966697 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	R	bar/16	+0.144 ( -0.196)
			0.523 0.185 0.008 – 0.477 0.114 0.003 +0.124 +0.144 0.002 0.002 0.001 – 0.002 0.001 0.000 0.005 0.012
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 871966697 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	3	R	bar/21 16/11	+0.003 ( -0.338)
			0.498 0.173 0.009 – 0.502 0.160 0.005 +0.013 +0.003 0.002 0.002 0.001 – 0.002 0.001 0.000 0.005 0.013
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 871966697 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

---

 

Pip counts: Blue 130, Red 165
Position ID: DeeMAyBsOwDhRA Match ID: cAkWAAAAAAAA

• Red moves bar/16

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	R	bar/21 6/1*	-0.042
			0.483 0.154 0.007 – 0.517 0.147 0.004 -0.026 -0.042 0.002 0.002 0.000 – 0.002 0.002 0.001 0.006 0.014
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 871966697 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	R	bar/21 16/11	-0.085 ( -0.044)
			0.474 0.152 0.006 – 0.526 0.146 0.004 -0.043 -0.085 0.002 0.002 0.000 – 0.002 0.001 0.000 0.005 0.013
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 871966697 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	3	R	bar/16	-0.095 ( -0.053)
			0.466 0.140 0.005 – 0.534 0.122 0.003 -0.047 -0.095 0.002 0.002 0.000 – 0.002 0.002 0.000 0.005 0.013
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 871966697 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

---

 

Pip counts: Blue 141, Red 165
Position ID: hnOOCSBsOwDhRA Match ID: cAkWAAAAAAAA

• Red moves bar/16

Alert: doubtful move ( -0.044)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	R	bar/21 6/1*	+0.049
			0.503 0.192 0.009 – 0.497 0.143 0.006 +0.059 +0.049 0.002 0.002 0.001 – 0.002 0.002 0.001 0.006 0.014
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 871966697 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
•	2	R	bar/16	+0.004 ( -0.044)
			0.485 0.155 0.005 – 0.515 0.096 0.003 +0.031 +0.004 0.002 0.002 0.001 – 0.002 0.001 0.000 0.005 0.012
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 871966697 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	3	R	bar/21 16/11	-0.217 ( -0.265)
			0.444 0.133 0.006 – 0.556 0.135 0.005 -0.114 -0.217 0.002 0.002 0.001 – 0.002 0.002 0.000 0.005 0.013
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 871966697 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

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