Continuing our discussion from Part 2, lets say that red got their worst roll of 42 and played it as best as possible, followed by blue fanning we arrive at the following position.
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Pip counts: Blue 132, Red 72
Position ID: m20BwFDuzRkCAA Match ID: QQkAAAAAAAAA
Now looking at the temperature map we see:
There are several rolls here that force red to leave a shot, which is getting to the bottom the issue. Of course we could continue with all the other possibilities for a complete analysis, but we have enough to see why the 8/4 move is coming out ahead.